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How To Use The Projections - Brochure Page #2



"How To Use The Projections"

(When and how to enter and exit trades)

Actual documented projection made 6/27/01


TickerInterval MovementStart DateTarget DateDate Projection Made
INTCDown (sell)6/28/017/9/016/27/01
Closing price $29.64

The ticker symbol is given, the start date is given and the target date is given during this interval period, based on the interval movement (in this case down) a client would sell or short sell the stock on the start date only.  Then close the position by no later than the target date in a losing or winning trade.  However the client may close the position sooner if personal profit criteria is satisfied and in theory make a profit.  The client should check the stock every day or put in a sell limit or stop loss in place.

Result of the above projection made on 6/27/01: on 7/06/01 closing price $28.43, profit of $1.21 or 4.08% profit.  A potential loss of $0.82 on 7/03/01 was experienced by the stock.  When a $1.21 or 4.08% profit has been established with three days left prior to the target date, it would be wise to close the position.  This profit does not include any investment advisor fees, brokerage commission, clearing house cost, exchange fees or any other fees associated with trading.  In an up interval movement (buy) everything would be the same except the client would have purchased stock as in the actual projection below.

Actual documented projection made 7/09/01

TickerInterval MovementStart DateTarget DateDate Projection Made
INTCUp (Buy)7/10/017/19/017/9/01
Closing price $27.79

Here again the ticker symbol, the up interval movement(buy), the start date and the target date are given.  Here the client would buy the stock on the start date only and in theory make profit some time during the interval period.  Remember seeing a profit may not come immediately.  Also remember that should the client see a profit prior to the target date that satisfies personal profit criteria, they may chose to close their position.  The interval period is a guide, not an absolute.  It is important to remember that only the closing price is considered, as this is a real price that is theoretically attainable (but not guaranteed), not a made up value.

Result of the above projection made 7/09/01.  No potential loss was experienced by the stock.  On 7/13/01 closing price $30.19; profit a 8.64% or $2.40.  When this type of profit is seen in only three days, it would be advisable to close the position.  Not doing so could be risky and greedy.  This profit does not include investment advisor fees ,brokerage commission, exchange fees, clearing house fees or any other fees associated with trading.  The other risk is that the stock may go through the roof and there may be lost opportunity cost. However there is always another opportunity a another stock.  As previously stated projections may sometimes overlap.  Thus the most recent projection cancels or ends the previous projection as all projections are time sensitive.

"How To" Summarized

Use limit orders to open and maximize positions on start date only not all will be filled – and if not, move on to the next deal.  To time the exit of positions during the interval period sell/buy stock, the following may be considered:

  1. Target date

  2. Personal profit percentage criteria: ie, 3% etc.

  3. Personal dollar profit criteria ;ie, 50 cents through a $1/share profit, etc.

  4. Limit orders

  5. Stop loss

  6. Remember profitable stocks movements may not always appear immediately

  7. It is not unusual for profitable movements to appear prior to target date

  8. The interval period, particularly the target date is not an absolute, just a guide, as a result an established profitable position may be closed prior to target date.

  9. Only closing prices are considered to determine if a profit or loss may have been made, during the interval period, as the the closing price is a real actual value that may have been theoretically attained (but not guaranteed), not a made up value.

  10. In the documenting of results in a losing trade the closing price on the target date and highest potential loss only are the prices considered. The target date is the theoretical last day to remain in the position and the last theoretical day for the position to become profitable.

  11. In a losing trade it is possible the price on the target date may have been the lowest value or highest possible dollar lost possible during the interval period.

  12. In a profitable trade the optimum or highest closing value was documented (but not guaranteed) during the interval period however less profitable positions may have been attained.  All the closing prices during the interval periods for all projections may be found on Yahoos Finance historical quotes page.  RI provides this information so the client may have an independent source to review all closing prices and dates used in the documenting of projections and in the documenting of results.

Not all trades will be profitable, there is a risk of loss.  Setting limits and stop loss is determined through individual risk tolerance – don’t be greedy.



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